Pitching stopping LSU from cracking SEC’s top tier
Alex Lange turned in a dominating performance for LSU in the middle game of its Southeastern Conference series against Mississippi State last Saturday night at The Box.
Going nine innings for the third time in his career, Lange limited the Bulldogs to two runs and four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, an unearned run and a lack of offensive support from Lange’s teammates resulted in a 2-1 Tigers setback.
Also, unfortunately, LSU fans have not seen that kind of outstanding pitching from Lange very often this season. Only half of Lange’s starts have been quality starts – six or more innings and allowing three earned runs or less.
Lange, who won 12 games as a freshman in 2015, has a 4-3 record so far this year. The statistics show Lange has not been effective on the mound. His ERA has risen from 1.97 to 4.34. His walks per nine innings have increased from 3.6 to 4.6. Opponents are batting .226 – 14 points higher than last season.
LSU lost eight of its nine position starters from last year. The current Tigers pitching staff has eight individuals who logged significant innings in 2015. Therefore, everyone felt that the pitchers would have to take up the slack for the new members of the everyday lineup.
Well, that scenario has not occurred. LSU does have a lower batting average -- .303 as compared to .314 in 2015. But, the pitching numbers have been mediocre at best. The Tigers’ team ERA is 4.21 as compared to 2.98 a year ago. Opponents are batting 28 points higher -- .258 as compared to .230.
Of the eight returning pitchers, all have a higher ERA through 40 games of the 2016 season in comparison to their final figure in 2015. Only two pitchers have held the opponents to a lower batting average this year – Hunter Newman and Doug Norman.
Just three pitchers are walking fewer batters per nine innings than a season ago – Newman, Russell Reynolds and Austin Bain. One needs to look no further as to why the Tigers are in a huge log jam for fourth place in the SEC rather than challenging for a league title.
LSU can still finish where most preseason prognostications had it – No. 4 in the SEC. However, if the pitching doesn’t get straightened out over the next month, there will be no postseason baseball at The Box. The Tigers will have to venture on the road for a NCAA tournament regional.
LSU’s series with Mississippi State was a tightly contested one. The teams exchanged slugfest victories – the Bulldogs winning 12-8 on Friday and the Tigers winning 11-8 on Sunday. So, the decisive game turned out to be Lange’s tough-luck loss Saturday.
LSU hitters had a very respectable .292 batting average in the three games against Mississippi State. However, the team ERA for the series was an unacceptable 5.67. The starters’ ERA was 5.19. The bullpen earned run average was 6.52. The reliable John Valek has the worst start of the season Sunday.
The defense, which was flawless in the sweep at Missouri the previous weekend, committed four errors and a passed ball. A rocky pitching staff was unable to overcome those defensive deficiencies.
LSU is one of five teams tied for fourth place in the overall SEC standings. The other four teams with a 10-8 league record are Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Unless there is a collapse, each of these teams will be in the NCAA tournament.
With four weeks remaining in the regular season, three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the conference. South Carolina has a one-game lead over Florida and a two-game advantage over Texas A&M. The Gamecocks play host to the Gators this weekend.
Those three teams will definitely be a regional host with the chance that all three could be national seeds. So, the race is on for the remaining one or two regional host spots among the five teams tied for fourth in the overall standings.
At this point, Mississippi State has the best body of work. The Bulldogs have claimed series victories against Florida, LSU, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Mississippi State won series on the road against Florida, LSU and Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs play all second-division teams over the next four weeks.
Vanderbilt has the next best body of work with series wins against two first-division teams – South Carolina and Kentucky. So, LSU has some work to do in order to move up the pecking order of SEC teams seeking a regional host spot.
The Tigers will spend this week on the road. First, LSU plays Tulane at Turchin Stadium in New Orleans on Tuesday (6 p.m. Central/CBS Sports Network). The Green Wave beat the Tigers 7-1 at The Box last month. Then, LSU has a Thursday-through-Saturday series against Ole Miss in Oxford.
Doug Norman will get the start on the mound against Tulane. Norman could pitch as much as five innings. The weekend rotation will be the same – Jared Poche on Thursday, Lange on Friday and Valek on Saturday. A successful week depends upon solid outings from these four starters.
Here are 2015 and 2016 statistics for LSU pitchers who threw significant innings on both staffs.
ALEX LANGE
2015: 114 IP, 12-0, 1.97 ERA, 3.6 walks per nine innings, .212 opponents’ BA
2016: 64 IP, 4-3, 4.34 ERA, 4.6 walks per nine innings, .226 opponents’ BA
JARED POCHE
2015: 109 IP, 9-2, 3.05 ERA, 2.1 walks per nine innings, .248 opponents’ BA
2016: 61 IP, 5-4, 3.26 ERA, 3.6 walks per nine innings, .257 opponents’ BA
HUNTER NEWMAN
2015: 37 IP, 3-0, 0.49 ERA, 4 saves, 3.2 walks per nine innings, .203 opponents’ BA
2016: 22 IP, 0-0, 2.01 ERA, 2 saves, 2.4 walks per nine innings, .182 opponents’ BA
PARKER BUGG
2015: 37 IP, 1-2, 1.72 ERA, 3 saves, 3.2 walks per nine innings, .180 opponents’ BA
2016: 22 IP, 0-1, 3.74 ERA, 2 saves, 4.6 walks per nine innings, .256 opponents’ BA
DOUG NORMAN
2015: 35 IP, 5-1, 2.04 ERA, 1.5 walks per nine innings, .262 opponents’ BA
2016: 19 IP, 1-0, 3.26 ERA, 3.7 walks per nine innings, .203 opponents’ BA
JESSE STALLINGS
2015: 33 IP, 1-2, 2.73 ERA, 12 saves, 3.3 walks per nine innings, .209 opponents’ BA
2016: 16 IP, 1-0, 3.94 ERA, 0 saves, 3.4 walks per nine innings, .226 opponents’ BA
RUSSELL REYNOLDS
2015: 37 IP, 6-0, 2.95 ERA, 4.2 walks per nine innings, .197 opponents’ BA
2016: 20 IP, 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.8 walks per nine innings, .289 opponents’ BA
AUSTIN BAIN
2015: 55 IP, 2-3, 3.95 ERA, 3.8 walks per nine innings, .216 opponents’ BA
2016: 18 IP, 3-0, 5.40 ERA, 3.4 walks per nine innings, .290 opponents’ BA
TEAM
2015: 621 IP, 54-12, 2.98 ERA, 19 saves, 3.3 walks per nine innings, .230 opponents’ BA
2016: 359 IP, 27-13, 4.21 ERA, 5 saves, 3.8 walks per nine innings, .258 opponents’ BA