Tigers need statement series win
Thanks to three-game sweeps against Arkansas and Tennessee – the two teams tied for last place in the Southeastern Conference, LSU finds itself in position to be a NCAA regional tournament host.
The Tigers have won eight straight games since losing the rubber game of the Ole Miss series three Saturdays ago. LSU’s SEC record sits at 17-10 and its RPI is 12. But, the fact of the matter is there are quite a few SEC teams enjoying very good seasons.
Entering this weekend’s series, the Tigers are no higher than a tie with Ole Miss for fifth place in the overall SEC standings. In addition, there are six SEC teams with a better RPI than LSU’s No. 12.
There is a major logjam at the top of the SEC standings. Florida, which plays at The Box this weekend, has a one-half game lead over Mississippi State and Texas A&M. South Carolina is next – one game behind the Gators. Then come the Tigers and Rebels – just 1½ games out of first place.
If LSU would sweep Florida and have Mississippi State lose one game to Arkansas, Texas A&M lose one game to Ole Miss and South Carolina lose one game to Alabama; it would tie for the SEC title.
If LSU would get swept by Florida and have Alabama sweep South Carolina and Vanderbilt sweep Auburn, it would be the No. 8 seed in the SEC tournament.
“I’m a one-game-at-a-time- guy,” LSU coach Paul Mainieri. “But, occasionally I will talk big picture with the team. You have to show the big picture sometimes to show there’s hope, like when you are 11-10 (in the SEC).
“When we got back from Tennessee (Sunday night), we had a team meeting. I put the conference standings up on the grease board. I showed them if this happens and this happens and this happens, we can finish in the top four in the SEC.”
Of course, LSU’s top priority at this point of the year is being given one of the 16 regional host spots. At this time, it appears that five or six SEC teams will be regional hosts. One would assume that Florida, Texas A&M and Mississippi State are locks to play host to regionals.
So, LSU is in the mix with South Carolina and Ole Miss for the next two regional host spots. All three of those teams have challenging weekends. Besides the Tigers’ series against Florida, the Gamecocks travel to Alabama and the Rebels visit Texas A&M.
LSU does have a non-conference game against Northwestern State at The Box on Tuesday (6:30 p.m. Central/SEC Network+), but the series with the Gators will have the most influence on the NCAA baseball tournament selection committee.
“All our goals are there,” Mainieri said. “If we do well this weekend vs. Florida, we may be a top-four seed in the SEC tournament. We could be a regional host. We could even be a national seed. If you would have taken a poll in the community a month ago, no one would have seen us in that position.
“I felt we were improving. I felt the lineup was coming together. There are going to be speed bumps during the year. You take two steps forward and one step back. That’s doesn’t mean you are a bad team after you take that one step back.”
According to Mainieri, the 10-7 Sunday victory at Tennessee told the most about this team. The previous seven straight wins provided the proper mindset for pulling out the last game against the Vols. LSU won five of those seven games by one run.
“You win three straight one-run games and the players get poise and composure,” Mainieri said. “Tennessee comes back from 6-2 (Sunday) and ties the score. We come right back and score four runs to take the lead. I don’t know it that would have happened six weeks ago. It’s the evolution of a team.”
The Tigers could improve their body of work by winning the series against Florida. LSU has played five series against SEC teams with winning league records. The Tigers won just one of those series – beating Vanderbilt. LSU lost two of three games to Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.
“I don’t think we can clinch a national seed this week,” Mainieri said. “We still would have work to do in the SEC tournament. None of this happens if we don’t beat Florida in the series. We will treat this series like a super-regional. We have to win 2-of-3 to be in position to be talked about as a national seed.
“We need to play a little better than we have against some of the better teams. We have our work cut out for us starting with the game against Northwestern State. We haven’t stormed through our midweek schedule this year.”
The Tigers have dropped four midweek games – two to Tulane and one to both Lamar and McNeese State. Northwestern State (30-21) has a 40 RPI after last weekend’s games.
Here are the series results of the top six SEC teams against teams with winning league records.
FLORIDA
Series victories: Texas A&M (3-0), Vanderbilt (2-1)
Series losses: Mississippi State (1-2)
Note: Florida and South Carolina split a two-game series with the third game cancelled by rain.
TEXAS A&M
Series victories: LSU (2-1), Mississippi State (3-0), Alabama (2-1), Vanderbilt (2-1), South Carolina (2-1)
Series losses: Florida (0-3)
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Series victories: Vanderbilt (2-1), Ole Miss (2-1), Florida (2-1), LSU (2-1), Alabama (2-1)
Series losses: Florida (0-3)
SOUTH CAROLINA
Series victories: Ole Miss (3-0)
Series losses: Vanderbilt (1-2), Texas A&M (1-2)
Note: South Carolina and Florida split a two-game series with the third game cancelled by rain.
LSU
Series victories: Vanderbilt (2-1)
Series losses: Alabama (1-2), Texas A&M (1-2), Mississippi State (1-2), Ole Miss (1-2)
OLE MISS
Series victories: LSU (2-1)
Series losses: South Carolina (0-3), Mississippi State (1-20, Alabama (1-2)